What I have to say here is not new and something that many other people are thinking but I just wanted to put out a verbal view and get people’s thoughts and feedback. I’m open for a healthy discussion on this and also to change my mind however here is my thought.
My understanding is that on average, organizations conduct a desktop refresh every 5 years and during this time replace hardware, software and other elements of desktop computing. Desktop Virtualization brings huge benefits such as the lack of need to further refresh hardware or the supportability of multiple machines.
The problem however today is that the TCO argument for desktop virtualization is not proven and not effective enough for organizations to convert en mass; it’s not that I don’t think it will be, it’s just that it’s not right now. Now I know that many organizations, especially the major desktop virtualization vendors will disagree with this point however you just have to walk around a trade show and see all of the products offering to “reduce the cost of VDI” to know this is the case and up to now, this fact has put many organizations off looking at VDI seriously.
Now, Windows 7 potentially changes all of this…
Most organizations skipped Windows Vista due to either real or perceived problems (I actually didn’t have a problem with Vista) and therefore possibly extended their desktop refresh cycles too. Windows XP is the prevalent desktop OS, however, will at some point be out of support and can’t support some of the new features and applications being developed today. Couple this with the fact that Microsoft will but an enormous amount of effort behind Windows 7 to ensure its success I can personally see organizations adopting the new operating system with enhanced vigor.
OK, so based on this and the fact that I assume organizations extended their desktop refresh cycles, Windows 7 will also bring a new round of equipment and therefore a new round of cost. Now while desktop virtualization was a hard cost to accept when an organization has perfectly good working machines, it’s not so bad when it’s part of a desktop refresh. Sure the layout costs of implementing VDI over a few thousand machines may be more but when you consider that there won’t be another need to buy any further hardware, ever, the TCO going forward is excellent and unmatched.
Windows 7 is released in October albeit many organizations having it now and come the new year I would imagine that organizations will be adopting the new operating system en mass. If there was ever a time for vendors, service delivery organizations and engineers to be preaching the virtualization word, it’s now. If the largest customers adopt a physical refresh, there is an uphill battle to convert them to virtual desktops however if the solutions from Citrix, VMWare and Microsoft are evangelized and adopted now then the organization will never look back…
Don’t miss this wave!
In my opinion there is a limited Windows to gain huge traction very quickly with desktop virtualization and that is the next 6 – 12 months. Desktop virtualization is the future and nothing is going to change that (even if there are certain IT techs stuck in their ways objecting to change) and the organizations who get on this now will experience the most success with the technology.
It’s vital to understand that Windows 7 will be huge in the industry and simply because Microsoft will do everything in its power to make it so. Once this is understood, it is imperative that organizations use Windows 7 as a catalyst to adopting desktop virtualization.
Tomorrow I will talk about the eco system such as personalization, security, licensing and access that will be essential to desktop virtualization but for now I wanted to at least get my initial thoughts out there.
If you haven’t already, take a look at the whitepapers and documentation from the major virtualization vendors and ping me a comment with your views.
Thanks!
This post was filed in Microsoft
About Jon Wallace:
Jon is a senior executive and technology veteran having worked with some of the largest and most complex technology environments in the world. As director of emerging technologies for a leading multinational software organization Jon focuses on creating disruptive strategy and maintains an in-depth view of the industry at large.
With the experience of working from the field level to the boardroom Jon brings a unique viewpoint catering for many factors and one which is based on real world experience.
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